Super Dram
Those of you visiting Armenia this summer will notice that the Dram has appreciated a great deal against the US dollar (and even the Euro). The dram has gained more than 30 percent in value against the dollar in the last two and a half years - much of it this past year. It now stands at 418 drams to the dollar. Since many people depend on the dollars sent to them by relatives from the US and Russia, their purchasing power has dropped a great deal. Companies producing exports from Armenia are suffering as well, since their products now bring in much less money when they convert their dollar sales - and Armenia's biggest manufacturing company is threatening to move abroad. So who profits? Simply importers and people whos entire salaries are denominated in drams. The largest importers of course are government officials - usually holding monopolies on importing certain items (fuel, sugar, etc). Imports to Armenia have surged 13% already and exports dropped 8%. A country concerned with encouraging exports would of course intervene to weaken their currency. China for years fought the increase of value of its currency, only caving in to massive international pressure to do so this year. The Armenian Central Bank, which sets the dram’s exchange rate, argues that its main mission is to suppress inflation, rather than protect local exporters and jobs... perhaps they need to be informed that their mission is wider than that, and that jobs and exports are as important as inflation?

5 Comments:
Round trip ticket via British Airways from LA will cost $1970 USD. At $3940 USD for air-tickets only, I don't think my wife and I will be able to go. Gosh, it's really expensive now to go to Armenia, and I'm wondering if many other summer visitors from North or South America are feel the same way?
Nothing super about it... a lot of other currencies have gained more vs the US dollar... The Canadian dollar which in 2002 was valued at about 63 cents US, is now worth 91 cents US... That's a gain of over 40%... Manufacturers in Canada adjusted themselves against this increase and people have benefited from it... I hope that in Armenia, the increase in the value of the dram will bring more buying power to the consumer and that the government will make sure that "exchange owners" and "dollar owners" are not the only people benefiting from it.
The US dollar has dropped against most currencies. For example it is down 15% against the Canadian dollar over the last year. The focus on the US dollar is unfortunate.
Inflation leads to a debasement of the currency and ultimately the economy, so the Central Bank is doing its job.
Armenian manufacturers and exporters will have to be innovative. In this regard the government can help with transparent and effective fiscal policy, export insurance, transportation and trade agreements, etc.
What you don't seem to understand is that the vast majority of the people in this country depend either on dollars being sent to them from relatives abroad, or have jobs whose salaries are set in dollars (paid in Drams), or both.
That means that a drop in the dollar has a massive negative affect on peoples purchasing power, and coincidentally helps all of the government tied oligarchs. That it is hard to actually find dollars to buy implies they should be worth more than they are as well...
It is possible that Dram has strengthened to ward off inflation. But since even the Central Bank chief admitted that there is a shortage of dollars to be bought, a laissez-faire currency market that the Central Bank advocates should have adjusted the value of the dollar.
That's why one can suspect that something funny is going on.
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