Another earthquake?
I haven’t written in a while – I guess I’ve been in a twilight zone and had lost my literary inspiration. I just read an article today that disturbed me and instigated me to begin writing again. It’s related to the risk of another earthquake primarily targeting Yerevan. I don’t know how credible the sources are, but it’s bothersome nonetheless. My husband says that there are other sources that negate this claim; I hope he’s right, but I’m still not totally convinced.
Here’s part of the article:
YEREVAN AT RISK OF CATASTROPHIC EARTHQUAKE'
By Shakeh Avoyan
Radio Liberty. Czech Rep.
June 13 2006
Armenia is at risk of suffering another catastrophic earthquake that would wreak havoc on its capital Yerevan and kill hundreds of thousands of its residents, a leading Armenian seismic engineer claimed on Tuesday.
Mikael Melkumian, who heads the Armenian Association of Seismically Safe Construction, said the apocalyptic scenario is based on research conducted by himself and other local seismologists. Those include Sergey Balasanian, the late former chief of the National Seismic Protection Service.
"We arrived at the conclusion that the territory of Yerevan is a very high-risk area," Melkumian told a news conference. "If we have an earthquake in Yerevan with a magnitude similar to that of the [1988] Spitak earthquake ... then almost nothing will be left of Yerevan because according to our calculations, about 80 percent of buildings will be destroyed and we will have about 300,000 victims," he said.
I know that Armenia is very susceptible to seismic attacks, as are many other countries in the world. But what disturbs me the most is that I haven’t heard of any significant precautions that the government of Armenia has taken to protect or even inform its people. I guess I’m going to have a hard time sleeping comfortably for the next little while…
Here’s part of the article:
YEREVAN AT RISK OF CATASTROPHIC EARTHQUAKE'
By Shakeh Avoyan
Radio Liberty. Czech Rep.
June 13 2006
Armenia is at risk of suffering another catastrophic earthquake that would wreak havoc on its capital Yerevan and kill hundreds of thousands of its residents, a leading Armenian seismic engineer claimed on Tuesday.
Mikael Melkumian, who heads the Armenian Association of Seismically Safe Construction, said the apocalyptic scenario is based on research conducted by himself and other local seismologists. Those include Sergey Balasanian, the late former chief of the National Seismic Protection Service.
"We arrived at the conclusion that the territory of Yerevan is a very high-risk area," Melkumian told a news conference. "If we have an earthquake in Yerevan with a magnitude similar to that of the [1988] Spitak earthquake ... then almost nothing will be left of Yerevan because according to our calculations, about 80 percent of buildings will be destroyed and we will have about 300,000 victims," he said.
I know that Armenia is very susceptible to seismic attacks, as are many other countries in the world. But what disturbs me the most is that I haven’t heard of any significant precautions that the government of Armenia has taken to protect or even inform its people. I guess I’m going to have a hard time sleeping comfortably for the next little while…
posted by Lara at 12:52 AM
2 Comments:
Precautions are key, mostly building construction. Earthquakes don't kill people, ceilings do. Comparable magnitude quakes in similarly populated areas kill greatly different numbers of people depending on building standards. But it takes regulations requiring decades to prevail in a city's overall construction. And they have to be enforced. I don't know what types of buildings Yerevan has. As for enforcement, a lot of Armenian people on this blog and elsewhere seem to say there's corruption in Armenia's public sector, which might loophole it for builders.
Right, and when you take a look at the quality of the construction happening in central Yerevan, or rather the lack of it, you're going to be even more worried. And not least because architects and seismologists have already warned that buildings higher than 6 stories in the Center are especially at risk. Put it all together, and I'd say corruption in Armenia might one day result in a catastrophe. It's the same reason for why so many buildings collapsed in the 1988 earthquake. One day we'll learn.
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